The Low-Cost Renewable Energy Trend In India Might Not Last For Long
According to Sumant Sinha, founder and CEO of ReNew Power, in GTM's Energy Gang podcast “Developers have been willing to cut their margins, and that is not healthy in the long run. Some of the bidders who bid aggressive numbers are going to end up having a problem eventually.”
In a fierce bidding war, solar developers are willing to tender increasingly lower bids in government auctions as they anticipate a further drop in prices of solar panels. This is according to Sinha, whose company has already two projects - a 2 GW wind and solar project. The company is also planning a 10 GW in the future.
Module prices in India fell below $0.30 per watt about four months ago. Sinha said consumers had expected the prices to go down to mid-twenties within the next three months. Instead, it had gone into the mid-thirties. He observed that some Chinese suppliers of modules are now renegotiating previously agreed prices. “It’s going to result in some unprofitable projects being done,” he said.
“From a health of the private sector and the development community standpoint, I would say that these reverse auctions have not been a great success, even though they’ve resulted in very low tariffs. And partly it is the developers themselves who are to blame for it.”
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Several companies are getting hurt in increasing numbers by the low-cost renewable energy trends in India. SunEdison, one of the popular solar plant developers, sold their Indian portfolio and pipeline after it had gone bankrupt. It had been reported in the local press that most of its upcoming projects were not viable.
Hyderabad based Greenko Energy Holdings bought the entire lot for a miserly $315 million, in what had been described as “the biggest distress sale of all time in the sector,” according to The Economic Times of India.
The latest company to be hit in this gale of crashing prices of renewable energy in India is Acme Solar Holdings. It won a bid in May this year with a record-low tender price of $0.038 per kilowatt-hour, but just three months down the line, it was already placing the 200 MW project it had earlier won for sale. Soaring prices of solar panels from China severely affected that project.
A renewable energy analyst firm based in New Delhi, Bridge to India, had said that “Indian solar developers typically factor in a 15 to 20 percent annualized fall in the cost of solar modules when bidding for new projects.”
The solar sector is not alone in this ordeal. The wind industry is also taking the hit. Inox Group had had won 250 MW project at a bid of $0.054 per kilowatt-hour but had put the project on the block just last month. The wind sector is also facing connectivity issues which have delayed a second auction by the government.
To observers from the outside, India’s low-cost renewable energy project is a huge success. According to Sinha, “They would look at the only metric they care about, which is what has happened to tariffs. And tariffs have been driven down quite dramatically. A year ago, we were looking at tariffs of around 8 or 9 cents. Today tariffs are in the range of 4 or 5 cents," he said.
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